\n \n \n u003cp style=u0022text-align: leftu0022u003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eGreed and fear are often seen as the two driving forces behind capital markets. How u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003ebullish are you about the gains to be made, or bearish about the losses?u003c\/spanu003eu003c\/pu003enu003cp style=u0022text-align: leftu0022u003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eThese two opposing forces make for fantastic drama and fantastic movies from Wall u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eStreet, to Wolf of Wall Street to The Big Short, In reality, however, they only tell u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003etwo-thirds of the story. Because the third force is conformity. Despite being a rather u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eless cinematic ingredient, conformity is a precondition if greed is to build the bubbles u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003ethat fear then punctures.u003c\/spanu003eu003c\/pu003enu003cp style=u0022text-align: leftu0022u003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eThe events depicted in The Big Short illustrate this point perfectly. A small group of u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003econtrarian investors, led by Michael Burry, see the fundamental flaws and distortions u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003einherent in the US property bubble. These were driven in particular by the u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003esecuritisation of subprime mortgages.u003c\/spanu003eu003c\/pu003enu003cp style=u0022text-align: leftu0022u003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eFor dramatic effect, this small group of contrarians are presented as absolute u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eoutliers. In fact, many people in financial markets were getting cold feet about u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003esubprime, as well as the Yen Carry Trade that fuelled it. u003c\/spanu003eu003c\/pu003enu003cp style=u0022text-align: leftu0022u003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eI vividly remember reading article after article in The Times and Financial Times u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003epredicting an imminent financial crisis in the months leading up to the crash. Irwin u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eStelzer, in particular, was uncannily prophetic throughout the spring and summer of u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003e2008.u003c\/spanu003eu003c\/pu003enu003cp style=u0022text-align: leftu0022u003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eSo why did so few act on these prominent warnings from prominent commentators? u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eThe answer comes from John Maynard Keynes, an economist who had a profound u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003egrasp of human psychology.u003c\/spanu003eu003c\/pu003enu003cp style=u0022text-align: leftu0022u003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eIn his General Theory (1936) he makes a startlingly counter-intuitive point; u0022Worldly u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003ewisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eunconventionallyu0022. In other words, the bankers and brokers who suspected the u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003ecrunch was coming, failed to act due to inherent conformism. They didn’t want to u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003ebreak rank first. They were too orthodox to run the risk of succeeding unconventionally. There were notable exceptions, but the herd instinct largely u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eprevailed.u003c\/spanu003eu003c\/pu003enu003cp style=u0022text-align: leftu0022u003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eWhy do I say all this? Because I think the same Keynesian principle applies to the u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eworld of marketing. We too can be prey to the fear of succeeding unconventionally. u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eBen Schott has written a brilliant article for Bloomberg titled Welcome to Your Bland u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eNew World, which highlights the peculiar tendency of start-up brands to imitate each u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eother. It’s a very funny critique of the codes of ‘blanding’.u003c\/spanu003eu003c\/pu003enu003cp style=u0022text-align: leftu0022u003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eThe article was actually written back in 2020, so it is dispiriting to see a growing trend u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003ewhere established brands appear to be getting on the blandwagon, adopting the u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003etropes and codes of blanding; dropping vowels for no apparent reason, acting u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eoxymoronically as VC-backed underdogs, and all looking increasingly similar with u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003emuted pastels and voguish typefaces.u003c\/spanu003eu003c\/pu003enu003cp style=u0022text-align: leftu0022u003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eIn General Theory, Keynes explains how following the herd normally ends in failure, a u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003ecycle that continues to repeat itself due to the anaesthetic effects of failing u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003econventionally. On the other hand, the success stories, the contrarians, are likely to u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003ebe regarded disapprovingly as oddballs and weirdos – dismissed as u0022eccentric, u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eunconventional and rashu0022 in the words of Keynes.u003c\/spanu003eu003c\/pu003enu003cp style=u0022text-align: leftu0022u003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eWhy are we so stubbornly conventional when so many success stories involve u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003enon-conformity and idiosyncrasy? Is it the numbing effect of rule-bound cultures? Is it u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003egroupthink? Is it risk aversion?u003c\/spanu003eu003c\/pu003enu003cp style=u0022text-align: leftu0022u003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eIt\u2019s probably a bit of all of these. But the main thing is an absence of individuality – the u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003esense of agency that comes from acting as an individual rather than a herd. u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eThis explains why so many successful brands, ancient and modern, are either u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eeponymous, or synonymous with a single individual. Guinness, Disney, Walkers, u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eBarclays, Dyson, Cadbury, Heinz, Virgin, Chanel, McDonalds, Levi’s, Microsoft, u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eAmazon, Nike, Apple, easyJet are all good examples.u003c\/spanu003eu003c\/pu003enu003cp style=u0022text-align: leftu0022u003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eThese are brands with originality at their core, baked in due to the individual vision of u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003etheir founder. It’s extraordinary how many have stood the test of time, how many still lead their markets by staying true to their founders’ principles, by succeeding u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eunconventionally.u003c\/spanu003eu003c\/pu003enu003cp style=u0022text-align: leftu0022u003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eWe work in an industry of practised systems. Jim Carroll (erstwhile Chairman of u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eBBH) warns of the effects of wind-tunnel marketing. Adrian Coleman (of this parish) u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003etalks of the dangers of optimising to vanilla. There are enough pressures to conform u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003ealready, let\u2019s not start adding to them.u003c\/spanu003eu003c\/pu003enu003cp style=u0022text-align: leftu0022u003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eThe more we understand how vitally important distinctiveness is to brand success, u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003ethe more we should resist the temptation to polish off rough edges. To hone that u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003etypeface to uniformity. To dilute idiosyncrasy or normalise quirks.u003c\/spanu003eu003c\/pu003enu003cp style=u0022text-align: leftu0022u003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eLet\u2019s brighten the winter nights ahead by daring to succeed unconventionally. Let’s u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003eresist the predictability of the wind tunnel, the inoffensiveness of vanilla. Let’s listen to u003c\/spanu003eu003cspan style=u0022font-weight: 400u0022u003ethe odd one out. History suggests it’s a risk worth taking.u003c\/spanu003eu003c\/pu003e\n <\/div>\n<\/section><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":67,"template":"","categories":[191],"class_list":["post-9580","news","type-news","status-publish","hentry","category-agency-news"],"acf":{"capability_ids":["8358"]},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wordpress-dev.vccp.com\/czechia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/9580","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wordpress-dev.vccp.com\/czechia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wordpress-dev.vccp.com\/czechia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/news"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wordpress-dev.vccp.com\/czechia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/67"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wordpress-dev.vccp.com\/czechia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9580"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wordpress-dev.vccp.com\/czechia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9580"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}